Euro 2012 Qualifying: Order, Big Three Emerge After Third Match Day
Qualifying for Euro 2012 is starting to take shape, with UEFA's big three having already made themselves the class of the pre-tournament tournament.
Oct 11, 2010 - It's taken only three rounds of UEFA's Euro 2012 qualifying before some semblance of order's come to the nine groups. While we entered Friday's matches with Scotland and Sweden outpacing Spain and the Netherlands, by the end of the day's seven hours of soccer, the world's top two teams had regained their groups' leads. When France beat Romania at Stade de France on Saturday, Albania ceded their Group D lead to Les Blues, leaving Norway and Montenegro as the only eyebrow-raising group leaders.
Montenegro's Group G lead is one part England's off day, one part Switzerland's stumbles, and another part Mirko Vucinic. When the Montenegrans go to London on Tuesday they will likely give their lead back to the Three Lions, who sit on six points through two matches. Still, with three 1-0 victories to open qualifying - two thanks to Vucinic goals - the Falcons are three steps ahead of Switzerland, who sit on no points through their first two rounds.
If Montenegro leads a group, there's no reason why Norway can't, though their five point lead over Portugal - the biggest lead of any group leader - is far less tenuous. Norway has already beaten Portugal, and they made surprisingly straight-forward work of a Cyprus team that had recent, strong performances against the Selecçao and Italy. Coming into this tournament, the Cypriots looked the better bet to challenge Portugal and Denmark for the group's top two. Now, that duo may already be too far behind Norway the realistically think they can win the group.
But beyond the performances of the tournament's upstarts, the third day of Euro 2012 qualifying was more about the favorites - how each performed without some of their biggest stars.
In Berlin, Germany spent the days leading into Turkey's visit considering the importance of Bastian Schweinsteiger. Their switch to two holding midfielders a year ago coupled with Torsten Frings and Michael Ballack being eased out of the team has left the Nationalmannschaft thin in the pivot. When Schweinsteiger withdrew from the team with injury, that thinness was taxed. Against Turkey, Joachim Löw went with Toni Kroos in the pivot, a move that initially underscored the Germans' dependence on Schweinsteiger. After a 3-0 dismantling of Turkey, Schweinsteiger's absence turned to exhibition of strength.
Schweinsteiger's club teammate with Bayern Munich, winger Arjen Robben, has been out since the World Cup final, a loss also being felt by the Dutch national team. Perhaps that, along with the absence of forward Robin van Persie and the exile of midfielder Nigel de Jong, is why the Netherlands was unable to rack-up their customary, lop-sided result against Moldova. A first half goal from Klaas-Jan Huntelaar - his sixth of qualifying - is all the Dutch would need, all they would get, though the possession advantages, the fluidity that exemplified their pre-World Cup play were there. With a little more dynamism in the final third - a little more Robben and van Persie - the Dutch will resume living-up to their second-in-the-world billing.
First in the world is still Spain, though without Xavi Hernández, it took the world champions forty-five minutes to remember their stature. It may not be fair to attribute all those struggles to their playmaker's absence. Also out was Fernando Torres, though that seemed less of an issue after Fernando Llorente's second half brace staked the holders to a 3-1 home win over Lithuania.
Of note, though, was how Spain went about their goals, changing tact after a scoreless first half. Like most of Spain's opponents, Lithuania stayed deep, narrow and compact, but unlike Spain's common solutions - relying on David Villa brilliance or the easing open of cracks by Hernández and Andrés Iniesta - Vincent del Bosque was more blunt. Both Llorente goals saw Spain build through their right flank, get behind the defense, and find the Bilbão man for headers.
While they were goals Torres is capable of, they weren't goals we've seen of late from El Niño. Beyond Llorente's usurping Torres in the World Cup, Friday's performance was testament as to why Spain's incumbent striker is not del Bosque's best starting option.
And though, like the Netherlands, Spain had a harder time than expected, Friday gave them, the Dutch, and the Germans another opportunity to reinforce order in Europe. The gap between number three and UEFA's field continues to grow. With the likes of Italy, England, Portugal and France continuing to serve as glass half-fulls, the space beneath Germany has become as big as South America's chasm between Argentina and the likes of Paraguay and Chile.
The Lay of the Land
Combine that hierarchy with the strength of Europe's nine groups and you start to get a good idea of where each team stands.
First, you have the nations that are almost shoe-ins to qualify for Euro 2012:
Shoe-ins: Germany (Group A), Netherlands (Group E), Croatia (Group F), England (Group G), Spain (Group I)
If the Netherlands are drawn by Sweden on Tuesday, they would (remarkably) drop out of this group. Given how the Dutch played on Friday, is it beyond reason to think that Sweden could play-for and get a draw? England is here by virtue of their group, while Croatia's win at Ramat Gan has given them a prohibitive advantage over an otherwise mediocre group.
Sure, one of Croatia or England could still trip-up and make me rue my "shoe-in" designation, but equivocation's rarely fun. Let me have this one, OK? While this may seem ironic coming from a writer's fingers, we can't let things like definitions constrain us.
Inside track: Slovakia (Group B), Italy (Group C), France (Group D), Sweden (Group E), Montenegro (Group G), Norway (Group I), Portugal (Group I)
Some of these inside track teams will soon meet obstacles, but until they do, they remain on course to qualify. For Sweden and Montenegro, those obstacles come Tuesday. For France and Portugal, the obstacles will continue to be internal, both teams having convincingly overcome them on Friday. Italy and Slovakia, however, tripped, though they still have the best track records in their group, neither having dropped points at home.
Within sight: Austria, Belgium, Turkey (Group A); Ireland, Russia (Group B); Northern Ireland (Group C); Georgia, Greece (Group F); Denmark (Group H); Scotland, Lithuania (Group I).
Austria and Belgium face-off in Brussels on Tuesday, likely to be the Austrian's first blemish of qualifying. Both Serbia and Slovenia have stumbled at home in Group C, keeping them a step behind Northern Ireland. Greece and Georgia's early draws have been forgiven by an easy (if even) group, while nobody beside France looks convincing in Group D.
